Is it good to paint in Fairbanks, AK this week?
A live 7-day go/no-go calendar for exterior paint in Fairbanks, built from the local forecast against the 5°F-above-dew-point rule. We lead with the signal a weather app misses: overnight condensation risk.
- Dew margin
- 2.8°F
- Overnight dew
- Watch
- Rain
- 73%
- Window
- —
Too cold to paint — daytime high only 41°F, below the 50°F minimum (even a low-temp line needs 35°F+).
- Dew margin
- -3.4°F
- Overnight dew
- High
- Rain
- 86%
- Window
- —
High condensation risk overnight — surface dips to within -3.4°F of the 21°F dew point (low 18°F, 55% cloud, 2 mph wind). A fresh paint can blush/blister. Stop 4h before dew falls.
- Dew margin
- 0°F
- Overnight dew
- High
- Rain
- 0%
- Window
- —
High condensation risk overnight — surface dips to within 0°F of the 16°F dew point (low 16°F, 5% cloud, 0 mph wind). A fresh paint can blush/blister. Stop 4h before dew falls.
- Dew margin
- 1.8°F
- Overnight dew
- High
- Rain
- 2%
- Window
- —
High condensation risk overnight — surface dips to within 1.8°F of the 25°F dew point (low 27°F, 60% cloud, 5 mph wind). A fresh paint can blush/blister. Stop 4h before dew falls.
- Dew margin
- 0.1°F
- Overnight dew
- High
- Rain
- 16%
- Window
- —
High condensation risk overnight — surface dips to within 0.1°F of the 31°F dew point (low 30°F, 98% cloud, 4 mph wind). A fresh paint can blush/blister. Stop 4h before dew falls.
- Dew margin
- -2.6°F
- Overnight dew
- High
- Rain
- 13%
- Window
- —
High condensation risk overnight — surface dips to within -2.6°F of the 31°F dew point (low 25°F, 94% cloud, 4 mph wind). A fresh paint can blush/blister. Stop 4h before dew falls.
- Dew margin
- 0.2°F
- Overnight dew
- High
- Rain
- 14%
- Window
- —
High condensation risk overnight — surface dips to within 0.2°F of the 30°F dew point (low 30°F, 100% cloud, 6 mph wind). A fresh paint can blush/blister. Stop 4h before dew falls.
- Too cold to paint — daytime high only 41°F, below the 50°F minimum (even a low-temp line needs 35°F+).
- Rain likely in the 24h cure window (73% chance, ~1.8mm) — it can wash out or mar an uncured paint.
- Watch overnight dew — surface comes within 2.8°F of the dew point (margin is 5°F). Time the coat to dry well before evening.
- High humidity (94%, over the 85% mark) slows drying — keep an eye on the cure window.
Hold off. These are forecast numbers — confirm the surface temperature on-site before you start.
Why these thresholds
Overnight dew condensing on a fresh coat causes blistering, surfactant leaching and peeling — the cause of 40%+ of exterior paint failures.
- • Surface temp must stay 5°F above the dew point through application and cure (ASTM D3276 / ISO 8502-42).
- • Air + surface in the 50–85°F band (low-temp lines to 35°F).
- • Humidity under 85%; ideally under 70%.
- • No rain for 24h after application.
- • We use the forecast ground-surface temperature as a surface-temp proxy — confirm on-site with an IR thermometer.
Free in the beta
Watch this job site 24/7
Get an email the moment overnight dew, rain, or an out-of-range stretch threatens a fresh coat — and a morning digest with the best window ahead. No app to check; we watch the forecast for you.