paint·day

Is it good to stain in Rockford, IL this week?

A live 7-day go/no-go calendar for deck & fence stain in Rockford, built from the local forecast against the 5°F-above-dew-point rule. We lead with the signal a weather app misses: overnight condensation risk.

TodayHold off
ThuRISK
75°/70°
Dew margin
1.4°F
Overnight dew
High
Rain
71%
Window

High condensation risk overnight — surface dips to within 1.4°F of the 65°F dew point (low 66°F, 100% cloud, 3 mph wind). A fresh stain can blush/blister. Stop 4h before dew falls.

FriRISK
78°/69°
Dew margin
0.7°F
Overnight dew
High
Rain
84%
Window

High condensation risk overnight — surface dips to within 0.7°F of the 71°F dew point (low 70°F, 100% cloud, 4 mph wind). A fresh stain can blush/blister. Stop 4h before dew falls.

SatRISK
81°/73°
Dew margin
0.7°F
Overnight dew
High
Rain
70%
Window

High condensation risk overnight — surface dips to within 0.7°F of the 69°F dew point (low 69°F, 100% cloud, 5 mph wind). A fresh stain can blush/blister. Stop 4h before dew falls.

SunRISK
83°/72°
Dew margin
0°F
Overnight dew
High
Rain
28%
Window

High condensation risk overnight — surface dips to within 0°F of the 64°F dew point (low 61°F, 0% cloud, 7 mph wind). A fresh stain can blush/blister. Stop 4h before dew falls.

MonRISK
76°/65°
Dew margin
2.3°F
Overnight dew
High
Rain
3%
Window

High condensation risk overnight — surface dips to within 2.3°F of the 58°F dew point (low 58°F, 5% cloud, 6 mph wind). A fresh stain can blush/blister. Stop 4h before dew falls.

TueRISK
75°/62°
Dew margin
0.5°F
Overnight dew
High
Rain
36%
Window

High condensation risk overnight — surface dips to within 0.5°F of the 65°F dew point (low 65°F, 92% cloud, 5 mph wind). A fresh stain can blush/blister. Stop 4h before dew falls.

WedRISK
81°/69°
Dew margin
1.2°F
Overnight dew
High
Rain
34%
Window

High condensation risk overnight — surface dips to within 1.2°F of the 64°F dew point (low 63°F, 93% cloud, 8 mph wind). A fresh stain can blush/blister. Stop 4h before dew falls.

Hold offThu — today & tonight
  • High condensation risk overnight — surface dips to within 1.4°F of the 65°F dew point (low 66°F, 100% cloud, 3 mph wind). A fresh stain can blush/blister. Stop 4h before dew falls.
  • Humidity peaks at 100% — well above the 85% ceiling; cure stalls and moisture gets trapped.
  • Rain likely in the 24h cure window (71% chance, ~11.9mm) — it can wash out or mar an uncured stain.

Hold off. These are forecast numbers — confirm the surface temperature on-site before you start.

Why these thresholds

Stain applied to a damp or dew-wet board can't penetrate — it beads, stays tacky and flakes. Wood must be dry and stay above the dew point while it sets.

  • • Surface temp must stay 5°F above the dew point through application and cure (ASTM D3276 / ISO 8502-42).
  • • Air + surface in the 5090°F band (low-temp lines to 45°F).
  • • Humidity under 85%; ideally under 70%.
  • • No rain for 24h after application.
  • • We use the forecast ground-surface temperature as a surface-temp proxy — confirm on-site with an IR thermometer.

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