Is it good to paint in Carmel, IN this week?
A live 7-day go/no-go calendar for exterior paint in Carmel, built from the local forecast against the 5°F-above-dew-point rule. We lead with the signal a weather app misses: overnight condensation risk.
- Dew margin
- -4.6°F
- Overnight dew
- High
- Rain
- 0%
- Window
- —
High condensation risk overnight — surface dips to within -4.6°F of the 48°F dew point (low 43°F, 100% cloud, 3 mph wind). A fresh paint can blush/blister. Stop 4h before dew falls.
- Dew margin
- 1.7°F
- Overnight dew
- High
- Rain
- 0%
- Window
- —
High condensation risk overnight — surface dips to within 1.7°F of the 47°F dew point (low 49°F, 100% cloud, 5 mph wind). A fresh paint can blush/blister. Stop 4h before dew falls.
- Dew margin
- 9.8°F
- Overnight dew
- Low
- Rain
- 2%
- Window
- 9am–5pm
Clear to paint: temps 58–80°F, RH under 66%, surface stays 9.8°F+ above the dew point, no rain in the cure window.
- Dew margin
- -9.9°F
- Overnight dew
- High
- Rain
- 50%
- Window
- —
High condensation risk overnight — surface dips to within -9.9°F of the 67°F dew point (low 57°F, 100% cloud, 4 mph wind). A fresh paint can blush/blister. Stop 4h before dew falls.
- Dew margin
- -3°F
- Overnight dew
- High
- Rain
- 58%
- Window
- —
High condensation risk overnight — surface dips to within -3°F of the 45°F dew point (low 42°F, 100% cloud, 10 mph wind). A fresh paint can blush/blister. Stop 4h before dew falls.
- Dew margin
- -2.8°F
- Overnight dew
- High
- Rain
- 41%
- Window
- —
High condensation risk overnight — surface dips to within -2.8°F of the 49°F dew point (low 42°F, 100% cloud, 5 mph wind). A fresh paint can blush/blister. Stop 4h before dew falls.
- Dew margin
- -1.8°F
- Overnight dew
- High
- Rain
- 30%
- Window
- —
High condensation risk overnight — surface dips to within -1.8°F of the 51°F dew point (low 50°F, 0% cloud, 9 mph wind). A fresh paint can blush/blister. Stop 4h before dew falls.
- High condensation risk overnight — surface dips to within -4.6°F of the 48°F dew point (low 43°F, 100% cloud, 3 mph wind). A fresh paint can blush/blister. Stop 4h before dew falls.
- Humidity peaks at 98% — well above the 85% ceiling; cure stalls and moisture gets trapped.
- Cold mornings (down to 49°F, floor is 50°F) — wait for the surface to warm past midday before you paint.
Hold off. These are forecast numbers — confirm the surface temperature on-site before you start.
Why these thresholds
Overnight dew condensing on a fresh coat causes blistering, surfactant leaching and peeling — the cause of 40%+ of exterior paint failures.
- • Surface temp must stay 5°F above the dew point through application and cure (ASTM D3276 / ISO 8502-42).
- • Air + surface in the 50–85°F band (low-temp lines to 35°F).
- • Humidity under 85%; ideally under 70%.
- • No rain for 24h after application.
- • We use the forecast ground-surface temperature as a surface-temp proxy — confirm on-site with an IR thermometer.
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Watch this job site 24/7
Get an email the moment overnight dew, rain, or an out-of-range stretch threatens a fresh coat — and a morning digest with the best window ahead. No app to check; we watch the forecast for you.